|
44964. concerned - 11/6/2012 1:11:01 AM Final Gallup Poll R: 50%, 0: 49% 'allocated' 44965. robertjayb - 11/6/2012 1:16:32 AM WaPo/ABC poll: Obama 50, Romney 47...
Heading into Election Day, likely voters divide 50 percent for President Obama and 47 percent for his challenger, Republican Mitt Romney, according to the latest, final weekend release of the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll.
44966. concerned - 11/6/2012 1:35:50 AM Rasmussen, Monday, November 5th: R: 49%, 0: 48% 44967. concerned - 11/6/2012 1:40:13 AM WaPo/ABC voter breakdown for their last poll: D: 35%, R: 29%, I: 32% 44968. concerned - 11/6/2012 2:05:14 AM In other significant events, the Million Muppet March wound down after Washington DC briefly seethed with sock puppets chanting "El-Mo, we won't go!" "Don't take the Cookie Monster off of Food Stamps." an itinerant Big Bird pleaded while Kermit the Frog proved there were no flies on him by eating them off of Democrat politicans that vote for public funding of PBS. 44969. iiibbb - 11/6/2012 2:24:52 AM Polls are not useful all by themselves. Particularly national poles.
538 44970. winstonsmith - 11/6/2012 5:05:59 AM 538 now predicts that Obama has a 91.4% chance of winning and will likely get 314 electoral votes. Nate Silver will either look like a genius or goofball tomorrow. 44971. arkymalarky - 11/6/2012 5:24:31 AM 91+% is still not 100. If his model is flawed or if Romney beats the odds and there's nothing wrong with the model itself, anyone at this point could look at the flood of polls and conclude the same. The pollsters are who will need the scrutiny if Romney wins. 44972. arkymalarky - 11/6/2012 5:28:25 AM If Sillver said anything from 51-99 he'd be right or wrong, but the impressive thing in '08 was that he was right wrt the states--49 of 50. 44973. arkymalarky - 11/6/2012 5:31:25 AM Iow, silver analyzes existing data. He doesn't collect it. Based on current polls and other factors (he's very open and frank about his methodology), those are Romneys odds. 44974. arkymalarky - 11/6/2012 5:38:25 AM Does Tom Brokaw get on anyone's last nerve besides mine? 44975. winstonsmith - 11/6/2012 5:50:02 AM Even though Silver is just working with the data provided by the pollsters, he has his own formula for weighting and interpreting the data. If he is way off on what states Obama wins and what the margins are, it will both call in to question the validity of the polling data and his method of processing it.
I like him and want him to turn out to be as accurate as he was in 2008. If for whatever reason he is way off, he will look bad.
Yes, Brokaw, last nerve. 44976. concerned - 11/6/2012 8:04:19 AM A number of people believe that Romney will carry both Pennsylvania and Ohio - there's a fair number of Democrat coal miners in Ohio and Pennsylvania who will be voting for Romney (guess why) and 0bama has been greatly outspent in Pennsylvania in the last few days.
Plus, I don't see how all the negative recent coverage over FEMA's response to Sandy will do 0bama's chances any good, regardless of Suet Pudding Christy licking his feet. 44977. concerned - 11/6/2012 8:11:20 AM 0bama: The 1930's called, and they want their economic policies back. 44978. concerned - 11/6/2012 8:19:02 AM It's actually very scary the level of disinformation disseminated that ever caused anybody to believe that FDR was not a worthless president when he was actually an anti-business elitist who was allowed to suppress the US economy for nearly a decade.
You Democrats own this. What's your excuse? 44979. concerned - 11/6/2012 8:32:03 AM Lefties, answer me this:
IF Guatemala requiring photo id to vote is not vote suppression, why would requiring some sort of positive ID (DL, voter registration card, SS card) be in the US?
Looking for a clear, consistent answer here. Not anything resembling 'You're a racist!'
The answer, of course, is that it is not vote suppression. You can't suppress what never has been granted in the first place. 44980. concerned - 11/6/2012 8:45:09 AM If Romney wins, I will point to 0bama's overall condescending campaign strategy that dipped liberally into the gutter and 0bama's total lack of new or appropriate policies as well as Biden's campaign gaffe-orama and clownish, patronizing debate performance as being factors that turned a lot of voters off.
It's unquestionably true that Romney and his team has shown far more class than 0bama & his crew throughout the campaign. There has been no namecalling from Romney, no claims that 0bama is a 'liar' nor 'felon' nor that 0bama 'murdered' anyone, nor gibes in any way comparable to 0bama's 'Romnesia', nor did Romney make, among his many statements, much in the way of refutable claims regarding 0bama's shortcomings & failures.
The upshot is that all Lefties here in this forum know full well that their choice is for the low road, low brow candidate; iow, the greater of two evils, whether they will admit it here or not. And a word of advice, such campaign tactics are usually mirrored in the candidate's governing style. 44981. iiibbb - 11/6/2012 3:52:18 PM If Romney wins it will be in part thanks to the help of the Governor of Florida and the Secretary of State of Ohio.
Defend their actions Concerned.
Republicans go on and on about voter fraud, when their has been very little evidence of it... but seem to have no qualms about making it as difficult for legitimate voters to cast their legitimate vote as the possibly can. 44982. iiibbb - 11/6/2012 4:01:07 PM Regarding 538--
You can argue his methodology, but it's still a sight better than banking on the results of a single poll and making a prediction despite the fact that this year that a single poll may be more accurate that Nate's model.
George Box said, "All models are wrong, some models are useful".
By extension, any model can be right for the wrong reasons in predicting a single event outcome. So if a single poll were to perform better than Nate's model, that does not indicate the pollsters methods were superior to Nate's methodology.
At the end of the day. I would bet on Nate in the long-term over any individual pollster. 44983. robertjayb - 11/6/2012 4:46:13 PM Princeton Election Consortium:
... as of November 6, 8:02AM EST:Obama: 312 Romney: 226
|
