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47307. Ms. No - 9/10/2020 11:09:25 PM I heard rumblings a bit ago that it might be Clarence Thomas. 47308. winstonsmith - 9/11/2020 1:45:20 AM Yeah, MS No, that would make sense, or Alito. Alito is 70 ad Thomas is 72. 47309. winstonsmith - 9/11/2020 1:53:42 AM Conservatives have watched the risk that Ginsburt took and must be applying significant pressure to Thomas and possibly Alito. Conservatives can plainly see that Trump is at risk of losing. I imagine they have a contingency plan where at least one of them will try to retire between the election and inaguration if Biden wins. They may have a plan blow through the process at high speed? It would look really bad if it was after the election. Seems like it would make more sense to announce a retirement now, before the election so it could be used to help Trump win. 47310. winstonsmith - 9/11/2020 2:21:59 AM No matter what, if they add SC retirements this crazy election season, thing may boil over. 47311. Ms. No - 9/13/2020 9:23:15 PM Yeah, I imagine if Trump gets to place another justice -- or two -- and then loses the election, the Dems may expand the court. I don't think they want to, but they may see it as having no other choice.
Because of course McConnell will rubber stamp any Trump nominee and it doesn't seem like there's anyone in the GOP who will buck that.
Or maybe there are a couple of vulnerable senators who would just to see if they can solidify their seats. 47312. winstonsmith - 9/19/2020 2:10:40 AM RIP RBG.
Well, in a more caring world Murkowski, Romney and Collins would all come out and say that it’s too much and they just won’t confirm a justice until after the election. Murkowski has already stated this. So we need two more to block? 47313. vonKreedon - 9/19/2020 2:35:39 AM I think we need a total of four or else Pence breaks the tie.
RIP RBG 47314. winstonsmith - 9/19/2020 2:45:03 AM Ah, yeah VK, you are correct. That will be harder. 47315. Ms. No - 9/22/2020 12:25:43 AM Mark Kelly could win the special election before Nov. 3 taking a vote from the GOP and giving it to the Dems.
McSally's pronouncement implies that Kelly's got the edge on her and she's doubling down on her bootlicking credentials for her career post-Senate. 47316. vonKreedon - 9/22/2020 8:33:36 PM There's also the crowded special election in Georgia, currently held by Loeffler. It's so crowded it's likely to not be settled until a follow-up runoff on Jan. 5th.
For either of these to matter, the vote would have to happen later than the end of November.
47317. winstonsmith - 9/30/2020 10:27:08 PM Well, the debate was painful to watch but served to chalk up more lost news cycles for Donnie. Tick, tick, tick. I really do think it is a hour by hour, day by day messaging war to keep Trump from gaining momentum. He will be a huge problem after the election no matter what, but if he loses, he will no longer be able to directly wield the levers of power. 47318. vonKreedon - 10/1/2020 1:33:53 AM While painful, I thought the debate went well for Biden. I'd have preferred Biden to interrupt less, particularly early in the debate, but he got better at allowing the contrast. He was, IMO, appropriately dismissive of Trump. Any lingering doubts/hopes of Biden's mental health should be put to rest, but they won't. 47319. vonKreedon - 10/8/2020 5:54:04 AM Good debate for Kamala. The main thing she needed was to appear Presidential; to be someone the electorate could see being successful in the Oval Office. She did that very well. She was more disciplined that Biden on adhering to the rules in contrast to her opponent. Pence's constant ignoring of the women on stage with him was, IMO, telling. Kamala was badass at times and that's a good look on her. 47320. winstonsmith - 10/8/2020 7:50:49 AM Agreed. I thought she did well. 47321. Ms. No - 10/7/2021 11:12:53 PM What's everyone's take on Harris at this point? I've been avoiding the news quite a bit over the last year, so I don't have an opinion informed by anything other than what I knew before and the fact that I haven't seen or heard much from/about her. (not that I'm faulting her, only to mention that I'm just out of the loop.)
I remember having fantasies of Biden serving two years and two months and then retiring and turning the office over to Harris who could then run and win her own two terms.
Ah, pipe dreams! 47322. vonKreedon - 10/8/2021 7:13:55 PM I'm afraid that the Dems don't have a good and obvious candidate for 2024. Biden will be too old to be viable, and Kamala just isn't a good campaigner. Also, the Dems are almost certain to lose both the House and Senate in the coming mid-terms, if the GOP doesn't win then it looks really bad for them in the '24 election even without a Dem incumbent.
47323. Ms. No - 10/11/2021 5:55:59 PM Good lord, that's depressing.
But good to see you, Cos! 47324. vonKreedon - 10/12/2021 3:49:33 PM Good to be seen! 47325. alistairConnor - 2/27/2022 6:31:29 PM So, what are the likely influences of the Ukraine war on US politics?
A week or so ago, one of my working theories about Putin's deranged behaviour is that he believed his own rhetoric about only negotiating with Biden (being locked in the Cold War, the only important players, in his head, are he and Biden), and that Biden was weak, and could be manipulated.
Or just that, having had success in manipulating US elections, he wanted to project the meme of Putin strong, Biden weak, to help the Trump party to win the midterms by a landslide, paving the way for the return of the Don. Which would be, obviously, a huge win for Putin.
All of that turns to dust post-invasion, of course. Putin is obsessed only with the Big Picture, and his place in history.
But the effects on US politics are unpredictable for me, partly because I'm too lazy to keep up these days.
I think Biden, and the US intelligence industry, should get credit for accurately predicting Putin's move, and above all, for going public with it.
Of course, nobody (outside the US?) believed them, but still... 47326. Ms. No - 3/3/2022 12:49:08 AM I had to explain the whole thing to my seniors this week and found myself wondering just how biased my information is. I mean, I've thought Putin was a dangerous thug with world-domination dreams for years, so I'm not the most objective person on this one.
And hearing about those to meat-puppets showing their asses at the State of the Union Address and that Manchin has finally decided that he'll openly sit with the Republicans rather than sucking their toes from across the aisle....it's all just depressing as shit.
One of my students is reading The Handmaid's Tale for the first time. It's freaking her out daily and she ran up to me this morning asking "Ms. O, what would you do if this started happening for real?"
And I was at a loss because I feel like we are already on the path and what exactly HAVE I done other than March and shoot my mouth off?
I mean, do I start keeping money in a mattress and planning my escape? Or just buy a bunch of guns and plan to go out in a blaze of glory?
Sheesh.
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