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47210. wabbit - 12/2/2018 3:58:54 PM

RIP George HW Bush, 1924-2018

47211. winstonsmith - 12/4/2018 1:54:44 AM

My 2020 prediction for the Dem ticket:

O’Rourke/Harris or Harris/O’Rourke

47212. winstonsmith - 12/4/2018 1:57:00 AM

I didn’t like 41 when he was in office but he seems pretty awesome in comparison to Trump.

RIP H.W.

47213. Ms. No - 12/6/2018 8:29:35 PM

I don't think O'Rourke could win --- and the GOP would mobilize against Harris almost as fiercely as they did against Hillary.

I'd love to think maybe Booker could run, but I think the black-lash will still be strong enough that he couldn't get elected.

People I absolutely do NOT want to see run:

Warren
Sanders
Clinton (I still think she'd make an excellent president, but I don't think she can win at this point.)

Not wild about Biden, but wouldn't hate him. I think he's kind of bland and too timid for my tastes, plus, he's not as progressive as I'd like, but I don't know if we could elect a true progressive.

47214. winstonsmith - 12/7/2018 4:02:54 AM

I talk with my 18 year old kids about this and they like O’Rourke and Harris. They think Beto is barely progressive enough to satisfy Bernie/Warren supporters as well as being able to talk with people in small towns in Texas. They see him as Obama 2.0 in some ways. Harris they see as basically being ideologically similar to Clinton/Biden but more palatable because she’s younger and blacker. I don’t know if that pair could win the general election but I feel like they could do well in the he primary and would likely do better than someone like Warren in the general election

47215. Ms. No - 12/7/2018 6:42:29 PM

I agree on all points ---- it's not that I wouldn't love to see an O'Rourke/Harris Administration, I just don't know that we can get there in 2020. Biden probably has the strongest chance against any GOP contender simply because he's old and white and male enough not to offend the more moderate wing of the Republican party (aka Independents)

Which is sort of snotty of me to say. I do believe that there are true Independents, but in my experience, they are most often right-leaning except on some social issues. I have a hard time distinguishing between them and Libertarians generally.

47216. arkymalarky - 12/7/2018 7:54:51 PM

Great discussion. My pick as my personal favorite is Kamala Harris mainly because I want to see her shred Trump in the debates and reduce him to a puddling pile of Tears which is what will happen. I've watched her interrogate people in Congressional hearings and she's amazing. I just don't care for Cory Booker I think he's prone to Love the attention too much and I'm not sure what kind of policy ideas he would have and how effective he would be at getting things done.I tend to agree with Rachel Maddow about Amy Klobuchar. She could easily move to my favorite pick. I'm afraid Beto O'Rourke would not exhibit the kind of leadership and unflappable get it done that Obama had. The comparisons to a bomber app but more from the crowd standpoint from what I'm saying them from his management style which I didn't see it so I wonder about.

47217. arkymalarky - 12/7/2018 7:55:57 PM

Got tired of proofreading my own text. Comparisons to Obama AR apt

47218. arkymalarky - 12/7/2018 7:56:11 PM

are. dammit

47219. winstonsmith - 12/8/2018 2:49:50 AM

Ms No, yeah, I live in one of the most progressive cities in the world so I am looking out from a bubble. I do try to take that fact into account though. My son and I have long discussions gaming out the scenarios and matchups of various candidates. The general election does seem to come down to the electoral college with the election turning on the results in a few states. One complex factor is how the Democratic primary will go. Groups of similar candidates can split the vote for that type of candidate (like Sanders and Warren) I think candidates that are able to stand out among a large field and garner votes across different cohorts of voters will have the best chance of winning. It will be a different mix of voters that the primary winner will have to face in the general though. Beto may not be all that strong in terms of actual preparation for the presidency but I wonder if his celebrity, likability and manufactured story could end up creating a kind of self fulfilling prophecy.

Arky, it would be really fun to see Harris debate Trump! I think Biden is the most qualified to be president but he is old and having been in politics forever has a number of cringey videos out there of him laying hands on young women (whether innocent or not) It will be really interesting to see how he fares as the primaries unfold.

47220. Ms. No - 12/10/2018 5:27:39 PM

Winston --- yeah, I know all about living in the bubble. Having to explain to my students how Trump got elected when they don't know anyone who would support him is tough. It makes them feel even more as if their vote won't count.


Arky - who do you like for VP on a Harris ticket? I think she's a total badass, I just wonder if we could get her elected.

47221. Ms. No - 12/10/2018 5:29:20 PM

If she were in the House instead of the Senate, she could be Speaker and then when Trump and Pence are removed from office she'd be president long enough to establish herself with the morons and then serve two terms of her own.

Ah, Monday morning fantasies!

47222. winstonsmith - 12/11/2018 7:13:38 PM

Move On Straw Poll:

Someone else/DK/other: 28.8 percent
Beto O’Rourke: 15.6 percent
Joe Biden: 14.9 percent
Bernie Sanders: 13.1 percent
Kamala Harris: 10 percent
Elizabeth Warren: 6.4 percent
Sherrod Brown: 2.9 percent
Amy Klobuchar: 2.8 percent
Michael Bloomberg: 2.7 percent
Cory Booker: 2.6 percent

It's very early still but I imagine most of these folks will announce during the next month.

47223. Ms. No - 12/12/2018 2:04:47 AM

I'm really, really bothered by the number of people backing Bernie Sanders. I feel like there's a lot of misogyny behind the Bernie Bros. Plus, the man will be 79 years old in 2020.

Biden will be 78 -- either of them being elected would put them at the oldest ever elected for a first term.


My thing with Bernie Sanders may be unfair, but I was so disgusted with his use of all the old Republican smears to campaign against Clinton while trying to pass himself off as the great, progressive (white) hope that I don't know if I could ever actively support him.

And all this nonsense with wanting his cake and eating it too --- he's an Independent/Democratic Socialist, but he'll claim he's a Democrat long enough to get the party nomination and then decline it so he can switch back to being an Independent --- thereby shutting out any committed Democrats who might otherwise have a chance. Then he wants to whine about how the DNC stole the nomination from him because they were biased in favor of an actual Democrat.

As far as I'm concerned, Bernie Sanders' job is to bring progressive views to the table and open the debate. It's a good and necessary thing, but it doesn't mean that a guy who has never passed any legislation or contributed significantly to the passage of any major legislation is any kind of progressive champion. He talks a lot, but ultimately he doesn't do much.

47224. winstonsmith - 12/12/2018 6:59:13 PM

Right now, Sanders poll numbers may be bolstered by defections from Warren. It is interesting to note that Sanders had overwhelming support vs Clinton in 2016 election polls from MoveOn. He has fallen quite far given his current support from that group.

47225. arkymalarky - 12/16/2018 8:52:58 AM

Love your fantasy Msno! And I totally agree with you about Bernie Sanders, and I suspect a lot of his support is just people trying to stir shit up in the Democratic party. I've noticed Gopers doing that. As far as my vp pick, I would like to see as a running mate for Kamala Harris I like beto. I'm afraid people are going to fall in love with him thinking he's going to be another Obama and I don't know that he has the leadership and management qualities Obama had. Obama didn't have a lot of experience but he was an excellent manager and delegater. How to get shit done as well as any modern president. I'm afraid that if Beto got the nominatio he might win but he would probably end up being one term. However if he ran as vp to somebody else, he's young enough that he can move into the presidency from there.

47226. arkymalarky - 12/16/2018 8:56:31 AM

And the reason Kamala Harris is my pick of the bunch is that I feel like we need somebody who will be able to get a lot of things fixed and who will need to be able to get the people and manage them to get that done. I want someone who doesn't mind telling people what to do and knows what they need to be doing and sees that they get it done. This isn't a regular time this is cleaning up a big steamy shitpile. It won't be easy.

47227. arkymalarky - 12/16/2018 8:58:22 AM

President Obama had to clean up the economy and other things that were in bad shape, but the Government was running. He didn't have to rebuild it from scratch like whoever replaces Trump is going to do

47228. wabbit - 12/16/2018 10:49:17 PM

My two cents, fwiw:

First of all, Nancy Pelosi needs to get over her damn self and start bringing along someone who is not of her generation. Thus far, she seems to be reluctant to do that. Seth Moulton has forced her hand. It's time for Nancy to get with the program or she can take responsibility for Trump's second term.

Seth Moulton. He's looking good to me in about 10 years. He's a veteran, thus far just left of center, which means he's electable. He's kept his head down until recently and will perhaps go back to that if he's thinking ahead, as I hope he is. But years ahead.

The Dems need someone electable at the top of the ticket. If that's an old white guy, so be it. They cannot hang their hopes on a minority or female candidate unless there is a very real chance of beating the cheeto, regardless of how qualified that person may be. We are in the land of the Pharaohs and the cult of personality.

So, if Biden is the one, he can run and plan for one term, make Harris the VP, and start putting people like Moulton and O'Rourke into leadership positions for experience and seasoning. The experiment with a no experience, doesn't understand his job or how a republic works, poor (in spite of his publicity) CEO of a not very respected corporation, autocratic dipshit will hopefully be enough for anyone but the right-wingnut end of the Republican party to come to their senses.

Please god, NOT Warren or Sanders, they are far more valuable right where they are and I doubt they could beat the orange one.

But that's just me.

47229. Ms. No - 12/27/2018 3:47:03 AM

Yep, I'm witcha.

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