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24739. robertjayb - 12/7/2008 10:21:18 PM Give a thought to this day, December 7, "...a date which will live in infamy."
I remember confusion and anxiety at home and at my little country school. My brother and his buddies scurried about and huddled for earnest conversations in front of our house. Then in just a few days they were gone, all the young men in the community were off to the great war.
24740. JJBiener - 12/8/2008 12:01:34 AM Greetings and salutations. I posted a new article to BarackObamaRevolution.com earlier this afternoon. I am now waiting for my Oatmeal Potato Bread to rise, so I thought I would see what was going on around here.
The local library had a book fair Friday and Saturday. Of course I went both days. I found some great books. Seven or eight cookbooks, a few books on writing, Charles Kuralt's America, Richard Rodgers auto-bio, books on superstrings and consilience (for a little light reading) and a copy of a PJ O'Rourke book I lost in the divorce. I also found several books which will be good Christmas presents for my wife. She got a healthy stack of books as well. The grand total for both days of book shopping? $12 for both of us. I love book fairs. 24741. wonkers2 - 12/8/2008 12:12:25 AM
Your point about the comparison with 1975 is well taken. Still it was a big jump, and that's a lot of people walking around without jobs. The Michigan Unemployment Compensation fund has been broke and borrowing from the FED for months now. This means that taxes on employers will have to go up soon which nobody thinks is good for economic development.
I agree the quality AP reporting frequently sucks in my opinion. Sometimes the NYT makes similar errors. Not long ago one of their columnists referred to a 1 point decrease in the interest rate as a one percent drop. By my calculation the decrease was more like 20% (from 5% to 4%--I don't remember the exact numbers.) 24742. JJBiener - 12/8/2008 1:45:11 AM Wonk - Yes, it is a large number of jobs to lose in a month. That said, if the media continues its campaign of scaring the hell out people, those people are going to have to wait a long time before they find new jobs. Right now employers are scared to hire people.
I too am shocked at the low level of literacy demonstrated in the media. I have seen the 1 point/1 percent confusion many times. I have seen plenty of other equally egregious errors as well. 24743. arkymalarky - 12/8/2008 3:36:25 AM My students have that problem: "79%! Couldn't you give me one point?"
Two things about unemployment right now: first, the situation worked up to these numbers and at a time when more are usually hired for the holiday season; and second, why would people be afraid to hire if they need workers? Aeound here they're trying not to lay people off, but they're about to have to. It's going to get worse based on factors that have already occurred. 24744. arkymalarky - 12/8/2008 3:39:21 AM Just saw Bro! They should be on pretty quick. Evidently they're up pretty high on the HGTV Top Ten Christmas Town list--and I've never even been there for Christmas. 24745. JJBiener - 12/8/2008 5:45:22 AM Arky, the numbers are seasonally adjusted so they take into account hiring for the holidays.
As for as why employers would be afraid to hire people, hiring decisions aren't simply a function of need. Hiring a person is a major commitment in terms of time and resources. A company has to be pretty sure that they are going to be able to recoup the investment and then some before they make the decision to hire. If an employer is concerned about the state of the economy, the will put off hiring as long as possible. Trust me, I have had a great deal of experience with this recently. 24746. judithathome - 12/8/2008 4:56:11 PM Give a thought to this day, December 7, "...a date which will live in infamy."
Not to make light of it but it certainly WILL...I met Keoni on that date in 1979!
And Arky, I taped that show but will have to wait until this afternnon to view it...Leslie had three more instances of vertigo over the weekend and we are leaving for the doctor in an hour.
24747. arkymalarky - 12/8/2008 10:46:16 PM My lands. Let us know how it goes. 24748. arkymalarky - 12/9/2008 12:48:53 AM Thanks JJ. When I heard the number (don't remember what news channel) they made reference to holiday hiring.
I realize there's more than immediate need to consider in hiring, but things are bad in reality and state of mind is reflecting it. In mid-November Bob asked the owner of a very successful business up the road on the interstate (not the truckstop!) If he'd noticed any changes and he said his business had dropped by half in three weeks. That's how fast what happened in Sept was reflected by interstate traffic. If it doesn't improve he will be forced to lay people off, but he told Bob that if things stay as they are he may be gone by spring. I don't think that will happen, but businesses are now unable to borrow so they can ride this thing out. 24749. thoughtful - 12/9/2008 12:57:02 AM jj, claims for unemployment insurance are above the peak in the last recession. people aren't scared because of what the media is saying. people are in fact losing their houses and their jobs. that's far more influential than what the media says. after all, how many americans even watch the evening news? credit markets are frozen and credit standards are tightening. that's far weightier on american's pocket books than what some talking head says somewhere.
this business that people are such irrational media-driven boobs is a real goper idea. imo it just reflects the fact that the average goper views the average american as sheep. i find that insulting. 24750. arkymalarky - 12/9/2008 1:43:49 AM On the show last night Mt View was 3rd on the list of 10, which surprised me. But I've never been there at Christmas. Bro plays with a family folk band at their dinner theater and that's who was shown. He was shown a little. The woman who talked most is a long-time good friend in the family band. I don't know whose house he was playing in--not his. My sil and niece were on for a second, too. 24751. arkymalarky - 12/9/2008 4:26:48 AM On the show last night Mt View was 3rd on the list of 10, which surprised me. But I've never been there at Christmas. Bro plays with a family folk band at their dinner theater and that's who was shown. He was shown a little. The woman who talked most is a long-time good friend in the family band. I don't know whose house he was playing in--not his. My sil and niece were on for a second, too. 24752. arkymalarky - 12/9/2008 4:30:06 AM I will never be a multitasker. 24753. JJBiener - 12/9/2008 6:08:24 AM Thoughtful - "things are bad in reality and state of mind is reflecting it"
The question is: are things in reality really as bad as we are being told.
"he said his business had dropped by half in three weeks. That's how fast what happened in Sept was reflected by interstate traffic."
This is my point. Do you believe half of his customers were personally affected by what happened in Sept or were they reacting to what they saw on the news or heard around the water cooler.
"businesses are now unable to borrow so they can ride this thing out."
I didn't address this in my article, but believe this is another media-driven crisis.
"claims for unemployment insurance are above the peak in the last recession"
The last recession was very mild compared to past recessions. If you remember, it wasn't portrayed that way, but historically it was barely a blip. Current claims are still mild compared to previous recessions.
"people are in fact losing their houses and their jobs"
Think about how you know this. You know this because you saw it on TV or read about it on the Internet or in the paper. I don't know about you, but I don't anyone who has lost their home. I know a few people who were laid off, but most of the people I know weren't. I believe this is true for most people.
"this business that people are such irrational media-driven boobs is a real goper idea."
Actually, I am saying the exact opposite. People are making rational decisions, but it is based on misleading information.
We are a country of 300 million people. The only way we know what is going on is through the mass media. It doesn't matter if a person watches the TV news or not. It filters out into the culture and it is unavoidable.
Let's look at two possible ways of reporting the same news.
"Skittish employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, dramatic proof the country is careening deeper into recession."
Compared to:
"Employers were forced to eliminate 533,000 jobs in November causing the unemployment rate to rise from 6.5 percent to 6.7 percent. While this represent a significant loss of jobs, unemployment remains at historically low levels compared to previous recessions."
Are you going to tell me that the average, rational person reading these two reports would not have two very different responses? Repeat this thousands of times over a period of months and explain to me how this doesn't have a significant impact on how people act.
24754. Ms. No - 12/9/2008 7:10:52 AM JJ,
I agree with you in part ---- I think our media is more sensational now than it has ever been. We don't have news, we have entertainment --- we punch up our news to make it more exciting so it can compete with CSI and Batman.
At the same time, I've personally witnessed a rather interesting fallout of home forclosures: displaced pets.
I'm a volunteer at the SPCA and we've had quite an increase in the number of animals turned over to us because families have had to move out of their homes and into apartments where pets are not allowed.
Certainly it's not all our pets or even half, but on a floor of 25-30 large dogs --- five months ago it was usually 18-23 --- we now regularly have five or six who are there because of home foreclosures. 24755. alistairconnor - 12/9/2008 1:19:07 PM Five or six foreclosed dogs : that's an interesting hybrid of anecdote and statistic!
JJ : I have another point of view about the US recession.
The fact is, US households have had, in aggregate, over the past few years, a zero or negative savings rate.
Bearing in mind that a large proportion of people have a positive savings rate, that means that a large proportion have had a negative savings rate.
What happens in a recession or crisis? Instinctively, people start saving for when it gets worse. The modern version of this is : people stop getting themselves deeper in hock. Voluntarily or not.
Add to that a large class of people who have been murdered on the stock market, and now need either to reduce their outgoings or save for their retirement.
The result is the same : a drop in discretionary consumption. The fact that the drop is so rapid and so radical is, of course, in large part psychological : but this is in fact a rational response on the part of people who realise that they, like the economy, have been living in a bubble. 24756. thoughtful - 12/9/2008 4:05:39 PM jj, the past recession was mild compared to others, but not in terms of jobs lost. In fact it was called the "job-loss" recovery because jobs continued to shrink even after the economy recovered.
I do not need news media to tell me how bad things are. I am an economist and I look at the data for a living. For example, there has been a loss in household wealth of $7.6 trillion since the 3rd qtr of 2007. These people who can't sell their houses, can't get credit, and have seen their savings dwindle, are they just suffering from cnn overload?
There is a record 1.35 million homes in foreclosure. Do you suppose there's some sort of viral disease that has caused people to simultaneously choose to stop paying their mortgages?
Half a million people applied for unemployment insurance last week. Are they perhaps suffering from some media delusion and thought they were laid off when they weren't???
Take a look at the baltic dry index chart. This measures the price of shipping raw materials around the world. The price has fallen through the floor. Do you suppose that's because globally there's been a spontaneous decision to stop shipping goods?
The economic situation is extremely serious. We are facing the longest and likely the worst recession since the great depression and like the great depression, its reach is global. That is not delusion. That is not media hype. That is a function of a sharp run up in oil prices, collapsing housing bubble, and a global credit freeze. We are in the middle of a giant deleveraging of global financial markets and it is an extremely dangerous and painful process.
It is real. 24757. judithathome - 12/9/2008 6:53:13 PM "are things in reality really as bad as we are being told."
They are probably worse.
And as to your question of knowing anyone who has lost their home, indirectly I see it DAILY. My husband is in the moving business...he comes home every day bummed beyond belief because he is having to tell people it isn't cheap to move...and they are moving because they have had their homes foreclosed on. They either decide to sell their belongings because it's too expensive to move or they put their things in storage because they have no place to move them...no new place because they can't afford one.
So don't tell ME it's all media driven. Keoni and I lost a third of our retirement in the past two months. That's not going to come back quickly.
Keoni's commissions on moves are down for the reasons I cited above...so we are looking at a lean winter.
We were rigid about savings...we paid in to his 401k and my mutual funds and our other savings before we paid anything else...always. For years. And what did THAT get us? One third of it down the drain. The house is paid for but it's probably going to be devalued...it's really effed up right now and it's NOT the media that has done it.
24758. judithathome - 12/9/2008 7:03:08 PM Update on my son...we were at the doctor for three hours yesterday...the doc induced an attack of vertigo for diagnostic purposes. Les will be seeing an ENT who specializes in vertigo but not until he's had a head and neck MRI this afternoon to make sure this isn't being caused by post-surgical circulation problems. He had about four attacks of it yesterday after we left the doc...we were starving and got to a restaurant (he was feeling fine), got out of the car and entered the place, and he started reeling and we went back to the car. I stayed with him the rest of the day and we ate crackers and watched the History Channel.
My son is killing me, slowly but surely...just kidding but sometimes I wonder if he's trying to get back at me for not giving him a motorcycle when he was 14.
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