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27440. PincherMartin - 7/1/2013 1:00:57 AM Judith earlier asked me about the details of my bet with Alistair.
On June 12th, 2008, I posted a link in TPW's Poopstain thread about scientists worrying that civilization would collapse if our society didn't get things turned around in the next decade.
Alistair Conner (Muffin McLay) responded the next day, and the discussion was on. Sometime later that day he put out this fateful post that sealed his doom:
"I'll tell you what. You lay out your position, I'll lay out mine. We can have an acrimonious debate, or we can skip that part."
"Then we come back and revisit the subject in five years."
"You like that?"
I love making these kinds of bets against these kinds of fools, but I didn't respond directly right away. Like a good fisherman, I was patient. I knew I had to let the fish take more of the hook before I set it.
A day later I was rewarded when Alistair went off on a very long and detailed series of posts describing in full detail the dopey depths of his environmental lunacy.
I toyed with him for a few more posts, goading him into throwing his wallet at me, before I finally set the terms:
Okay, here are two bets on which I wager $500 each (in 2013 terms). If you are game, I'll up the ante.
*****
Rather than Exxon stock, let's bet on the price of oil. I assume that is what you think is solely driving Exxon's stock price, anyway.
I wager that a barrel of oil, in inflation-adjusted terms, will cost less than $140 by July 2013. Just to be clear, that's in U.S. dollars.
As for the Euro, I bet that, by July 2013, one U.S. dollar will buy more than 0.65 of a Euro.
Deal?
Alistair agreed, but changed the currency for each bet to 500 euros rather than 500 US dollars.
continued...27441. PincherMartin - 7/1/2013 1:01:38 AM Two parts of what would eventually be a three-part bet were set.
1) By July 2013, a barrel of oil will cost more/less than $140 in inflation-adjusted terms. The wager? €500. Alistair takes the over. Pincher takes the under.
The result? A barrel of WTI crude today costs $96.56, while a barrel of Brent costs $102.10. That's even without adjusting for inflation. Using a crude inflation calculator, it appears Alistair needed oil at $150 a barrel today to win the bet.
So Alistair was only off by $50 a barrel. At least he was close, right? ;-)
Pincher wins €500.
2) By July 2013, one U.S. dollar will buy more/less than 0.65 of a Euro. The wager. €500. Alistair takes the under. Pincher takes the over.
The result? One US dollar today can buy 0.7687 of a Euro.
I'd like to tell you this wager was more competitive than our bet on oil, but Alistair never really led after the first few months.
Pincher wins €500.
continued.... 27442. bhelpuri - 7/1/2013 1:05:14 AM PP,
As a veteran of roughly a billion strenuous debates here, there and everywhere, let me tell you that PMS only _resembles_ a decent debater. It is posing, it is chickenshit that can be wiped clean with a tissue in one second. To me, of course, it is also deeply boring. One comes to these sites for entertainment, and to connect with old friends, after all. PMS delivers zero. 27443. bhelpuri - 7/1/2013 1:10:06 AM Finally, I have written (and been paid handsomely for) thousands and thousands of words about my well-timed move from NYC.
And many times this past couple of years have thought about sharing these particular narratives - after all my posts here were kind of a first draft! - but it is precisely the festering, stalking presence of the likes of PMS that detracts... 27444. bhelpuri - 7/1/2013 1:13:56 AM If I were Connor - dear old Father of the Motion - I would recommend a donation in Monkey Boy's name to the nearest Gay Marriage advocacy group. You know that's what he/it really wants... 27445. PincherMartin - 7/1/2013 1:14:46 AM The final part of our bet was made the following year. After our initial €1000 bet, Muffin was very confident I would lose. I think he called it "easy money".
Alistair was a big believer in peak oil. Despite all the news about recent discoveries of new oil reserves, he was sure the global supply would go down.
So the tie-breaker for our previous two-part bet was agreed to in October of 2009.
3) By the time the world production figures for 2012 have been released by the EIA, it will have been demonstrably proven that annual oil production did not peak in 2008. That means, in either 2009, 2010, 2011, 0r 2012, world oil production figures will reach a new record high. The wager? €500. Alistair takes the under. Pincher takes the over.
While this was the last wager Alistair and I would make, it was the first one I won. According to the EIA, global oil production hit record highs in 2010, 2011, and again in 2012.
Pincher wins the final €500 for game, set, and match.
27446. PincherMartin - 7/1/2013 1:18:30 AM bhel,
You're an excellent writer, but you couldn't debate your way out of a paper bag.
For some fascinating reason, the talents you were born with to write first-rate prose have left you without any comprehension of logic or the ability to weigh competing evidence. I can't recall a single debate in the history of this forum that you contributed anything beyond a few pretty words. 27447. arkymalarky - 7/1/2013 1:19:00 AM Oooh Bhel, don't let that deprive us of a great read! 27448. bhelpuri - 7/1/2013 1:20:06 AM Dude (i3b3) those gimp images are seriously disturbing. More disturbing even is the thought PMS might get near a baby. A human baby, I mean. Baboons are nasty! 27449. PincherMartin - 7/1/2013 1:22:03 AM When bhel writes that he is "a veteran of roughly a billion strenuous debates here, there and everywhere", what he means is that he was carrying water to those doing the real debating.
Bhel doesn't debate. He never has. He emotes and moralizes in very pretty prose. 27450. arkymalarky - 7/1/2013 1:23:31 AM Oooh Bhel, don't let that deprive us of a great read! 27451. arkymalarky - 7/1/2013 1:24:17 AM please oh please posting gods, let pm use the words "passive aggressive" again. I have missed them so. 27452. PincherMartin - 7/1/2013 1:27:44 AM "please oh please posting gods, let pm use the words "passive aggressive" again. I have missed them so."
I'll post them again if you show me a photo of you in your hammock. 27453. bhelpuri - 7/1/2013 1:29:45 AM PMS,
I address you directly here, because you obviously need that. I know relatively few things really well, but one of those is that you have no credentials to pass judgement on anything at all.
You were a juvenile ass when you came on this forum - but at that time many of us were, and behaved like that. However, time has passed Monkey Boy, one must learn, one must grow up and take on real responsibilities. For literally everyone here (except you, apparently) real life proved more alluring than the Internet's shadow puppetry. At this moment, I sincerely wish you the same. Go. Get a life. 27454. PincherMartin - 7/1/2013 1:30:03 AM
And I'll post the words three times if you can find a single instance of Bhel competently debating any issue in this forum. 27455. bhelpuri - 7/1/2013 1:34:54 AM Also, I remain proud of this Mote's grown-up aspect, where so many of us have met, and continue to meet. It makes us better... 27456. PincherMartin - 7/1/2013 1:40:44 AM Bhel,
"I address you directly here, because you obviously need that. I know relatively few things really well, but one of those is that you have no credentials to pass judgement on anything at all."
You see, I knew this would happen.
Debate isn't about credentials. Or passing judgment.
But is that what you meant when you said that you were a "veteran" of a billion online debates?
Because it is much more believable to me that you've flashed your credentials or passed judgment a billion times online in lieu of actually discussing an issue.
But that's not debate.
If we're talking about India, for example, and you make some claim that I disagree with. If you retort that you've actually lived in India and I have not, you've flashed your credentials, but you're not debating
You write beautiful prose, but you haven't a single idea bouncing around in that Hindu head of yours. 27457. bhelpuri - 7/1/2013 1:42:18 AM You are an idiot. Bring me Khan. 27458. PincherMartin - 7/1/2013 1:44:59 AM Hahaha ! I'm sure he'd agree with me that you're a great stylist and a moron.
But agree or not, that's certainly the way he treated you in the good old days. 27459. PincherMartin - 7/1/2013 1:49:45 AM Bhel has an impressionistic intelligence that expresses itself best in words (rather than, say, brushstrokes or musical notes).
But he does not know how to analyze, and he wouldn't know how to debate if his family's life depended on it.
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