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3820. arkymalarky - 5/24/2006 2:14:40 AM Did you get rid of the Odyssey? 3821. alistairconnor - 5/24/2006 9:33:48 AM If they stop raising interest rates, who will buy the treasury bonds?
There won't be any collapse in oil and other commodities until there is a collapse in demand. That would only happen if India and/or China started getting priced off the market. Prices are high because consumption of oil and commodities are the highest they have ever been, and increasing, and there are non-market constraints as to how much can be produced... Geology for example. Economists don't believe in geology, because the boy cried wolf too early.
But the wolf is real. I think he's at the door. I may be wrong, but in all events it's only a matter of years. Maybe as many as ten, but I'd be surprised. 3822. Magoseph - 5/24/2006 10:31:16 AM Did you get rid of the Odyssey?
Just went back where it came from, Arky.
3823. Magoseph - 5/24/2006 10:32:26 AM If they stop raising interest rates, who will buy the treasury bonds?
As I become aware of the economic projections, I wonder why there’s no comparison made to the financial collapse that came about in Argentina. In your opinion, is there any similarity in the US situation and theirs? I believe they collapsed when their paper was no longer wanted.
There won't be any collapse in oil and other commodities until there is a collapse in demand.
The oil consensus is so overwhelming that I tend to be suspicious of it. I suppose that’s my nature.
3824. Adam Selene - 5/24/2006 2:08:49 PM New story about shale oil extraction in the west on NPR yesterday. Story is - it can now be done for less than $50/barrel and there's more oil there than the entire Saudi reserve. There's a test site there generating about a barrel a day and it's ramping up to 1,000 per day for a proof of concept to get the oil company interest. Of course, getting pass the environmentalists won't be easy.
All we needed was higher prices and oil company profits to get past the cost barriers. There's still plenty of oil left people. 3825. Macnas - 5/24/2006 3:53:53 PM That's right Adam, there is plenty oil left. In fact, most of it that has ever been found, never mind that which has yet to be found, is still in the ground.
A very successul field will be able to take 60% of the oil in any one place, its usually between 10 and 30%. Oil is very difficult to get out, it's not in a big pool underground, but is within the rock strata, usually a kind of shale.
This is why I think alternative energy sources will still be underdeveloped when the time comes that we need them the most. Somebody will direct technology to getting rest of the oil out that isn't feasible right now.
3826. alistairconnor - 5/24/2006 4:18:08 PM And when the shale oil turns out to be snake oil, Adam will say : "Ah those pesky environmentalists."
Processing all that rock to get oil is incredibly energy-intensive, i.e. the net energy gain may be very slim or negative. It produces massive amounts of waste (that don't fit down the hole they came from).
Want to make a bet that there will be significant oil produced from shale in five years? Ten?
There is plenty of oil. It's light, sweet crude which is running out... for the moment. The point is, we are so geared to the cheap use of the easiest energy source, and wasting it, that it's far from clear that we can make the transition to a sustainable state while continuing economic growth and high standards of living. 3827. Adam Selene - 5/25/2006 1:22:54 AM I'm agnostic regarding energy sources, which means everyone thinks I'm on the other side. I'm most likely going to buy a hybrid for my next car, despite the higher cost, because I happen to like my planet.
On the other hand, I think science and nature will find a way through our current problems and we'll muddle on through each crises just like we've always done.
Anyway - I never had a clue how much shale oil there was until I read The NPR Story on it.
A study by the Rand Corporation estimates the sedimentary rock in the corner where Utah borders Colorado and Wyoming holds about 800 billion barrels. That's three times the size of Saudi Arabia's oil reserves....
Bhattacharya figures the company can produce oil for about $33 a barrel in the early days, and that, over time, production costs will fall to less than $20 a barrel.
Yes, environmental problems will need to be solved. And new ones will appear... for example, it's time we started paying attention to pollution from ships.
"Ships were perceived as a small source that could be neglected," says James Corbett, who studies emissions at the University of Delaware's Graduate College of Marine Studies. "We've been regulating cars for 30 to 35 years. Ships have not been significantly regulated to date."
Part of the reason that boat and ship pollution is getting more attention is that cars and trucks are getting cleaner. That means ships account for an ever-larger share of the air pollution around port cities. Environmental officials estimate that in 25 years, marine vessels will account for nearly double the percentage of the USA's smog-forming pollution.
3828. robertjayb - 5/25/2006 2:18:47 AM What about those drybacks with their mowers and leaf blowers? I read that those small engines spit out a lot of bad stuff. 3829. robertjayb - 5/25/2006 2:26:47 AM Wouldn't you know? The Swedes are on top of it...
STOCKHOLM, Sweden -- The air pollution from cutting grass for an hour with a gasoline powered lawn mower is about the same as that from a 100 mile automobile ride, according to a new study from Sweden. The report, which the authors say is the first to compare lawn mower pollution with auto mileage, recommends using catalytic converters on mowers.
3830. Ronski - 5/29/2006 4:43:45 PM Do catalytic converters still get very hot, or did they solved that problem? In cars, they used to start fires if the vehicle was idling over some dry grass. 3831. Ronski - 5/29/2006 4:48:57 PM Well, I googled and it seems they solved that by a new design in 1981 and by using unleaded gas. Figures, since I haven't heard of fires for a long time. 3832. Ronski - 5/29/2006 4:57:33 PM We went to the Presby Iris Garden in Montclair, NJ, yesterday:
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