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28258. alistairConnor - 4/25/2006 8:03:34 PM But, having said that, I am relatively sanguine about being able to weather the coming storms, personally at least. I wouldn't be planning on buying a car in 2009 if I wasn't an optimist. 28259. Adam Selene - 4/25/2006 8:23:27 PM I wouldn't call it "blind," there's many generations of experience that man can solve problems man creates. Not eliminate all problems, but solve the ones that improve our situation in the near term. But yes, I'm an optimist. As a sci-fi reader since birth, I've always believed in man's innate ability to master his destiny, and that in the end, we will muddle through somehow. 28260. Adam Selene - 4/25/2006 8:49:13 PM alistair - I like that car! Specially the spartan interior. It appeals to the minimalist, functionalist engineer in me. 28261. resonance - 4/26/2006 12:26:09 AM ... exactly my point.
Well, not to put too fine an edge on it, but your point is something different -- that market pressure will remove the automobile from the hands of all but the 'well-to-do', whatever means of qualifying you are using for that title.
Mine is that the very same pressure will work to keep that mobility in the hands of most people, since both the jobs economy and the services economy depend heavily upon a mobile population.
28262. Adam Selene - 4/26/2006 12:45:10 AM resonance,
And I think you're both right. :)
Market pressure will remove the automobile in it's current form from the masses, but people will never give up mobility, even if it means shudder mass transit, hybrids, and self-imposed rationing of travel by living closer to your commute destination. 28263. Adam Selene - 4/26/2006 12:45:51 AM Darn toys. 28264. SnowOwl - 4/26/2006 3:02:51 AM test 28265. wonkers2 - 4/26/2006 3:15:01 AM I'm inclined (barely) to agree with Pelle and Adam in this discussion. We are certainly capable of adapting to declining oil reserves. The transition will be momentous because our economic development for 100 years has been based on oil. However, coal reserves are huge and nuclear energy is a viable alternative. Solar and wind energy will also contribute. I heard recently that we are on the brink of a significant breakthrough in solar power. Motor vehicles some day will be powered by hydrogen fuel cells. However, global warming is worth worrying and doing something about before it's too late. 28266. wonkers2 - 4/26/2006 3:16:37 AM If you look at world car production you'll see that more people, not fewer, are driving cars every year. This trend may be expected to continue. 28267. wonkers2 - 4/26/2006 3:16:58 AM For the forseeable future. 28268. judithathome - 4/26/2006 3:33:41 AM Yes, Wonkers, just think of all the Chinese waiting to trade in their bicycles for cars. 28269. Adam Selene - 4/26/2006 3:36:23 AM As if. If I were Hu, I'd keep them on bikes for their health and build cities with housing near jobs, and GOOD mass transit. There's no reason they have to duplicate our mistakes. 28270. alistairconnor - 4/26/2006 3:24:54 PM Motor vehicles some day will be powered by hydrogen fuel cells.
Yes, there will be hundreds, perhaps thousands, of hydrogen fuelled motor vehicles. I'm quite sure I'll never own one.
The thing, Wonk, is that bottled hydrogen has a very low energy density compared to petroleum based fuel. It's just not a smart option. If you've got lots of hydrogen, probably the best use for it is to use it to extract or fabricate petroleum for transport. 28271. alistairconnor - 4/26/2006 3:31:40 PM Res : your reasoning looks rather circular. Wish fulfillment : People will still be able to afford to drive cars, because they simply HAVE to!
I mean, I hope you're right. But it doesn't amount to an argument.
To go back to your original quote :
Message # 28236 I think it's an interesting question as to whether or not it is moral to force people, via price pressure and taxation, to stop driving so much.
This sounds a little bit conspiracy-theorist. Would you care to expand on it? Is some malevolent entity heavying us with price pressure? Is there someone who can flip a switch and make it all right again, as your reasoning implies? 28272. Adam Selene - 4/26/2006 3:37:14 PM alistair - energy density is a technical concern, not an economic one. As long as the fuel+tank weight isn't too much or too big and the range between refills is acceptable (perhaps 200 miles minimum, like a motorcycle,) then energy density is a non-issue. But if hydrogen is like batteries where you just can't fit enough into the car, then that's another story (and you're right.) But, if so, why haven't we heard that argument? 28273. wonkers2 - 4/26/2006 4:31:33 PM Adam, I agree that there's no reason why China and India should repeat our mistakes. But it appears to me that that's what they are doing.
Alistair, hydrogen fuel cells aren't an easy solution. In addition to the low density there is a safety issue involved in driving around while sitting on a tank of hydrogen. My sources in GM say that this risk can be reduced to an acceptable level. My same source says clean diesel engines are a better interim solution than hybrids. He pressed for this but didn't get far. 28274. Adam Selene - 4/26/2006 4:40:05 PM But don't you know hydrogen is sexy?
See what happens when presidents dictate science policy with our money... 28275. uzmakk - 4/26/2006 4:43:52 PM Did any of you see the Instant Chinese Green City in Harper's of a month or two ago? 28276. uzmakk - 4/26/2006 4:48:32 PM Our architects, their ability to engineer socially. 28277. alistairconnor - 4/26/2006 5:48:57 PM Adam:
Energy density is an economic concern, too. Any electric or hydrogen car from existing technology is simply too heavy to get decent fuel economy, and that's the kicker. Until recently, I expected that my next car would be electric or hydrogen, now I think I'll be sticking with diesel for a long time.
This might change, if it turned out that electricity and/or hydrogen, or something else, became a whole lot cheaper than diesel for the equivalent energy, to the extent that it would be economically justifiable to make the cars heavier.
Back on topic : time to stop worshipping those big, clunky cars.
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