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45247. robertjayb - 11/12/2012 3:37:04 PM Too early/lazy to look up...
What was Nate Silver's forecast/estimate/guess for Obama's electoral vote total? 45248. iiibbb - 11/12/2012 3:54:28 PM He nailed it. His most likely scenario, with over 20% of the outcomes in his model, was 332 to 206; 332 his that high signal. The second most likely outcome was losing Florida which would have given him 303; that's the second highest peak at just over 16% of outcomes.
The mean outcome was 313 to 225 45249. judithathome - 11/12/2012 10:20:40 PM But...but...Nate Silver is a "short, pasty nerd"! How can he possibly be correct in his calling of the race?
The Right is so encapsulated in the bubble, they can't even tolerate the slightest hint of reality. 45250. concerned - 11/13/2012 8:20:03 PM I didn't post anything about Nate Silver either way. Guess he's what passes for a 'silver lining' for the Left's perfect storm cloud of an economy, more on which in my next post. 45251. concerned - 11/13/2012 8:25:37 PM With 0bama victory, the private sector is voting with its feet
excerpt:
The National Manufacturers Association forecasts 6 million layoffs and an 11% unemployment rate as a result of Obama's pending tax hikes and regulatory siege.
If JAH and iiibbb weren't encapsulated in bubbles of their own, how come they didn't see this coming if 0bama won? And how about the US taking on $6 trillion dollars in debt while the economy grew less than $1 trillion in four years? How is that anything to be re-elected for?I guess the only question for them now is how to blame Republicans for this without sounding like morons. Not possible, IMO.
45252. concerned - 11/13/2012 8:27:32 PM And I live and work and interact in a very integrated environment. Not that I owe you any explanation as to why I find racial stereotypes obnoxious.
I doubt that you find them as obnoxious as I do. Your work environment is not as integrated as mine is, either. Is that supposed to be some figure of merit among the brain cell and a half crowd?
45253. Wombat - 11/13/2012 8:29:22 PM Concerned lives in a bubble called the Investors Business Daily. Or rather, the editorial page of the Investors Business Daily. 45254. Wombat - 11/13/2012 8:31:59 PM If Concerned had a brain cell and a half, he'd be smarter than he is now. 45255. concerned - 11/13/2012 8:32:00 PM "0bama just 'needs more time' to fix all the damage he inherited (from Republicans)." That's a Big Lie that 0bama rode all the way to a second term.
How are the stupid Lefties going to defend a likely 11% unemployment as part of the plan to fix the economy?
Looking for answers here. 45256. concerned - 11/13/2012 8:37:11 PM Wombat -
Were you so stupid that you didn't forsee this downturn in the economy if 0bama was re-elected, or did you simply not care?
Don't think your cheap insults will cover this up.
45257. concerned - 11/13/2012 8:54:22 PM Say, 'smart' guy - why don't you contact the National Manufacturer's Association and tell *them* they're living in a bubble? 45258. concerned - 11/13/2012 9:33:52 PM It's laughable, but pathetic that most of the Lefties that will be joining the unemployment lines as a result of their own electoral choices will be busily spinning anti-Republican conspiracy theories to explain their problems. Just more proof that you really can't fix stupid. 45259. winstonsmith - 11/13/2012 9:52:56 PM I think we will not have anything like 11% unemployment and that the economy will continue to slowly improve. There may be some republicans and republican leaning groups that are unhappy about Obama winning who will make statements about layoffs and maybe even accelerate layoffs they were already planning, as a form of protest.
Over time though, it will become obvious if things are tanking or continuing to improve. I will wait to see actual, official jobs numbers to decide how things are going. 45260. concerned - 11/13/2012 11:34:06 PM Corporations, except for a few marginal players, will not lay off anyone because of partisan pique. We are talking first tier companies such as Boeing, PepsiCo, Northrup Grumman, etc. that are among those already cutting back their work forces due to the unfriendly tax and regulatory environment the 0bama administration is creating.
As far as the economy 'slowly improving', that not the case, since workforce participation and mean household income are both lower than at the bottom of the recession which ended in 2009. An explosion of 'part time' jobs (less than 30 hours a week), being defined as those where the employer is not responsible for health care expenses, is expected, and I think you know the reason for this. These are all strong indicators of a declining economy, not of one that is 'slowly recovering'.
The stock market is doing better mostly because of the vast amounts of money that the 0bama administration is plowing into Wall Street, so that its performance does not correlate with the state of the economy (this is not unusual, historically, btw.). The jobless rate will definitely increase and may well top 10%, if not more. Add to that the high probability that the US will receive further credit downgrades, and there will be essentially nothing that anybody could point to (with any credibility) as indicating that the overall economy is improving. 45261. judithathome - 11/13/2012 11:47:56 PM If JAH and iiibbb weren't encapsulated in bubbles of their own, how come they didn't see this coming if 0bama won?
If you honestly believe the layoffs were awaiting an Obama win, then you are much denser than I think you are...projected layoffs are planned months in advance. They would have happened if Romeny had won, also.
Of course, had that happened, you'd be spinning it as "cutting the flab" or some other such BS. 45262. Wombat - 11/14/2012 12:09:18 AM In the interests of science, I went to the layoffs web site Concerned was kind enough to provide a link for.
I did a quick and dirty comparison of the actual number of layoffs reported in the week before election day and the week after. I excluded non-specific reports of pending layoffs, and international layoffs (where some of the big numbers are). The numbers include layoffs caused by events that most likely have no link to the economy, such as the Massachusetts company that mixed contaminated vaccines, and companies that failed regulatory tests.
In the week before election day, 6,875 people were laid off by companies and state and local governments. The week after election day 6,819 people were laid off.
So...using a standard that is only slightly less moronic than Concerned's cut and paste extravaganza for measuring economic success/failure, it is clear that employers actually welcomed the reelection of President Obama, as they laid off less people.
Concerned, I hope you get paid for posting stupid shit on blogs, because if you aren't, it means that you might actually believe what you are posting, your claims of above-average intelligence notwithstanding.
45263. concerned - 11/14/2012 1:49:53 AM Well, here, Wombat - add this into your mix:
Darden Restaurants has announced that its scaling many of its employees' workweeks back to 28 hours. They employ 185,000 people, and Kroger, which employs 350,000, will limit existing part timers and new hires to 28 hours a week also to avoid the $3,000 0bama Care Insurance penalty.
Yes, these people will technically still be employed, but total compensation for many of them will probably be half of what it would have been pre-0bamacare, and they will have to purchase their own health insurance without the benefit of receiving a group rate.
Tell me how this isn't a step backwards. 45264. Wombat - 11/14/2012 5:22:52 AM Well here, Concerned - work on your reading comprehension:
"Darden Restaurants, the company that operates Olive Garden, Red Lobster and LongHorn Steakhouse restaurants in Atlanta and nationwide, is experimenting with limiting hours of some employees to avoid health care requirements introduced in the Affordable Care Act.
The pilot project is only occurring at a “select number” of restaurants, the Orlando Sentinel said, while the restaurant company determines whether it is a viable option. Under a provision of Obama Care that will take effect in 2014, all large companies must offer health care to employees who work 30 hours or more per week.
Orlando, Fla.-based Darden is the world’s largest casual dining company and has about 185,000 employees, the Sentinel said. If widely implemented, according to observers, the plan to limit worker hours could result in less-skilled workers and a higher turnover."
It isn't a step backwards. It's bait for morons who appear to read at a fourth-grade level. Note the terms "pilot program," "select number," and the last sentence of the article. Also note that the provision doesn't kick in until 2014, so Darden will have plenty of time to figure out whether this particular game will work. 45265. Wombat - 11/14/2012 5:28:31 AM At least the Darden story is from a reputable source, which is more than can be said for the Kroger story. 45266. concerned - 11/14/2012 9:29:56 AM Best not cast stones regarding 'reading comprehension', Wombat. 'Some' employees could easily be 'some' tens of thousands and certainly thousands - plenty enough to make my point.
It's a step backwards - only a tool would aver differently.
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