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7566. alistairConnor - 7/4/2008 2:12:15 AM Well, I'll take dirhams too. 7567. concerned - 7/4/2008 4:53:53 AM rejexst -
Want to bet on that? 7568. concerned - 7/4/2008 5:00:12 AM Re. 7563 -
I have seen a projection that oil production is expected to increase until about 2013. 7569. alistairconnor - 7/4/2008 8:52:41 AM Con :
And who's the projectionist? I'd they predicted an increase from 2006 to 2007 too.
But, on balance, you're probably right. I'll probably lose the bet this time next year.
Unless there are a couple of sizable hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico.
Or unless the rebels in Nigeria take out a couple of offshore platforms.
Or unless a couple of big oil projects fail to come online on schedule.
In which case, the bet will be pushed back another year.
Or, of course, unless little W and his uncle Dick get that Iran war they want so badly. In that case, 2006 is certain to be the all-time peak. And Bush will have a real legacy. 7570. alistairconnor - 7/4/2008 9:18:56 AM 
This is as good a prediction as any.
It's done by adding all known "megaprojects" (major oil developments) to existing production, then discounting the total by a global decline rate of 4.5% per year (the production rates of oil wells start declining almost as soon as they are commissioned). It predicts the peak in about 2015.
But this decline rate is now generally considered rather optimistic. Here's what it looks like if the decline rate is assumed to be 8% :
Peak in 2010.
And in both cases, projects are assumed to come on line at the date and production level advertised by their operators. However, reality is different : in particular, the Caspian fields are not performing as advertised, the biggest of them will be several years late.
It's astonishing how quickly the industry "experts" have changed their tune. In only a few months, the forecasters have abandoned their fantasy projections of oil supply expanding to meet demand for decades to come... Now they are practically parroting the positions of the peak oil crowd.
7571. jexster - 7/5/2008 1:23:52 PM When the King of Saudi Arabia talks about oil, we should listen 7572. wonkers2 - 7/5/2008 5:59:08 PM Good info, Alistair. Not encouraging. 7573. jexster - 7/5/2008 10:48:18 PM Go tell mama
 7574. jexster - 7/6/2008 7:40:02 PM From time to time I go living in the past with my old friend Laura, now with Chevron.
Invariably, we meet at "we told you so thirty years ago"
And so Jimmy Carter did
There's nothing being debated today that we didn't thrash out 3 decades ago
American Energy Policy, Asleep at the Spigot 7575. thoughtful - 7/7/2008 6:29:36 PM Who was it who said, the only thing new in this world is the history you don't know... 7576. concerned - 7/7/2008 9:38:45 PM Re. 7574 -
President Peanut Brain was claiming peak oil before 1990.
He is an idiot. 7577. concerned - 7/7/2008 10:01:04 PM Re. 7574 -
And what were you 'telling us' about nuclear power 30 years ago?
Oh, yeah. That's a big reason why we're in such an energy bind now. 7578. concerned - 7/7/2008 10:06:02 PM The Left Wing way: Claim that there's a problem, block the best solutions for as long as possible, then try to put us on a guilt trip about their caving at the last second. 7579. jexster - 7/9/2008 1:41:54 AM The Pickens Plan
7580. jexster - 7/12/2008 5:35:03 PM ABOARD THE PAPAL PLANE - Pope Benedict XVI said Saturday he wants to wake up consciences on climate change during his pilgrimage in Australia.
Concerned's immortal soul is in peril 7581. concerned - 7/17/2008 5:08:02 AM New Research Suggests that First Humans to Settle Americas were Eee-vile White Men From Europe
So, can I have my own casino? 7582. jexster - 7/17/2008 5:11:22 PM Gore sets energy goal for next president to heed
Gore wants US to produce all power through Earth-friendly energy sources within 10 years
7583. jexster - 7/18/2008 3:53:49 PM California First State with Green Building Standards 7584. jexster - 7/18/2008 9:01:28 PM The Greening of America
T. Boone Heads to Capitol Hill to Meet with Democrats 7585. robertjayb - 7/19/2008 2:56:22 AM Yeah! Judge stays wolf slaughter...
BILLINGS, Mont. — A federal judge has restored endangered species protections for gray wolves in the Northern Rockies, derailing plans by three states to hold public wolf hunts this fall.
U.S. District Judge Donald Molloy granted a preliminary injunction late Friday restoring the protections for the wolves in Montana, Wyoming and Idaho. Molloy will eventually decide whether the injunction should be permanent.
The region has an estimated 2,000 gray wolves. They were removed from the endangered species list in March, following a decade-long restoration effort.
Environmentalists sued to overturn the decision, arguing wolf numbers would plummet if hunting were allowed. They sought the injunction in the hopes of stopping the hunts and allowing the wolf population to continue expanding.
There were fall hunts scheduled that would call for perhaps as many as 500 wolves to be killed.
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