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9361. wabbit - 6/16/2009 4:13:43 PM The other thing that strikes me as being odd is that Iran's population is so young and urban, and I would have thought they would vote against Ahmadinejad.
I'd love to hear PE's take on all this. 9362. vonKreedon - 6/16/2009 5:39:24 PM Yeah, I'd also love to hear from PE on both Iran and India.
Wretchard has an interesting take on how splitting the loot may have led to the split within Iran's ruling elite and opened the door to the reform movement. 9363. Wombat - 6/16/2009 7:25:45 PM Apparently Khameini is detested by Rafsanjani. Rafsanjani has been working very hard behind the scenes to support Moussavi, both during the election campaign and at present.
There are also unconfirmed reports of dissension in the Revolutionary Guards and the Army; both have been neutral so far. If they go, however, it will be Ceaucescu all over again.
VK's source is right about Moussavi. He didn't govern Iran throughout the Iran-Iraq War by being a nice liberal democrat. On the other hand, he is nowhere near as egregious as Ahmedinejad. It's like comparing Bush I with Bush II. 9364. alistairConnor - 6/16/2009 9:36:49 PM I will be bitterly disappointed if the regime allows Ahmedinnerjacket to get away with his coup d'état.
He might well have had a tough election against Moussavi, and he might well have won it anyway. But he clearly stole it, to avoid the risk of losing.
I am perhaps alone here in not regarding the Iran regime as a totalitarian system, up until now anyway. It has been a functioning constitutional democracy in many respects-- not entirely a pluralist one, but one in which progress was possible. It looks like the constitutional authorities initially put their duties as guardians of religion ahead of their duties as guardians of democracy. But it's by no means a monolithic regime, Moussavi himself is an insider and has a lot of support, and now they have ordered a recount... perhaps due process will win the day? 9365. vonKreedon - 6/16/2009 10:08:49 PM I agree that by the region's standards Iran has been a vibrant republic.
I don't think that Ahmedinejad can be fingered as the top guy in this bit of election chicanery; it can not have happened without Khameini's involvement.
What I've read regarding any recount severely constrains why a recount would happen and what would be recounted. Not near good enough. 9366. wabbit - 6/16/2009 11:47:28 PM I read someone describe Khamenei as a Muslim of convenience rather than a true believer like Khomeini. I'll post a link if I can find it again. Sounds like a real politician.
This Al Jazeera article quotes Mahjoob Zweiri summing up the current conflict as between two factions represented by Khamenei and Rafsanjani: "The first one, which is represented by the supreme leader, says Iran should stay a revolutionary state, and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani wants the state to move on - to become a modern state, a pragmatic state."
A brief but interesting interview with author Azar Nafisi is worth reading. 9367. alistairConnor - 6/19/2009 9:16:02 PM About the Somali piracy thing. I was talking to a guy at a party the other day, he was just back from an international piracy conference in Dubai, or somewhere like that. He made the point that the people involved are in fact victims of the statelessness of the zone formerly known as Somalia.
They are simple fisherfolk. Somalia has a fishing zone, just like everywhere else. But no government or navy to defend it. So they get systematically poached by commercial fishing fleets from all over the world, and there's very little left for the locals.
So they start by trying to drive the foreign fishing boats away with shotguns etc. And, well, you can see the rest. 9371. wabbit - 6/19/2009 10:08:36 PM I'm going to delete 9368-70 and repost for vonKreedon, just in case. 9372. wabbit - 6/19/2009 10:09:09 PM 9368. vonKreedon - 6/19/2009 4:29:34 PMRight, they quickly discover that there's little profit to be made in driving rival fishing boats away compared to taking freighters hostage. IMO, that's a significant step beyond poor victimized fishermen to....well...piracy.
Yeah, the Somalis are well and truly fucked, except for those in the Puntland State of Somalia, but they've fucked themselves as much or more than they've been fucked by others. 9373. vonKreedon - 6/19/2009 10:35:25 PM Thanks Wabbit, order is returned to the Mote continuum. 9374. alistairConnor - 6/20/2009 12:18:26 AM I wasn't justifying piracy. Just sociologising it. 9375. Wombat - 6/20/2009 2:44:22 AM Now it gets rough. Khameini has essentially told the protestors that the election will stand, and that there could be severe consequences for continuing the protests.
Over to Moussavi... 9376. robertjayb - 7/6/2009 5:07:41 AM Oh, Canada! The best place on earth...Macleans)
...we’re wealthier than the Americans, we live longer than the Swedes, we’re more industrious than the Germans, we have more lovers than the Italians, we eat better than the French and we have more TVs than the Japanese.
In so many areas—the economy, health, education, public safety, and living standards—the numbers, it seems, back up what we’ve always quietly believed deep in our patriotic hearts. Sorry to brag, but it looks like Canada is the best place on earth.
Canadians bragging?
9377. wabbit - 8/1/2009 1:03:52 AM RIP Corazon Aquino: Former President Corazon Aquino, who swept away a dictator with a "people power" revolt and then sustained democracy by fighting off seven coup attempts in six years, died on Saturday, her son said. She was 76... 9378. vonKreedon - 9/17/2009 4:08:48 PM US Admin cancels E. European missile shield
I'm hoping that the Admin has extracted some assurances from Russia on supporting sanctions against Iran in return for this. Assuming that they have then this is a good deal, otherwise kind of unwise IMO. 9379. alistairConnor - 9/18/2009 10:45:22 PM I think it confirms the existing "international" perception of Obama as naive and flaky. On its face, it just hands the Russians a huge bargaining chip for free. They will say "thanks" and grin.
Terrible thing to say. I hope there's more to it than that. 9380. arkymalarky - 9/19/2009 3:06:51 AM Indications in news reports about it were that the purpose was to advance the US interests wrt Iran. I have yet to be proven wrong that anyone from anywhere underestimates Obama at their peril. And I don't think most of them do. I think his whole administration plays almost everything close to the vest and he's communicating with people nonstop.
He reminds me of the most brilliant person I ever worked for. He could have been anything with his talents, but he has too much heart. I didn't realize until I'd known him for years how much groundwork and networking and pre-planning he put into absolutely everything he accomplished. He was tireless, regarded and adored by everyone who knew him, and he always had time for you and made you feel like you were a close friend--and it was real. We still stay in touch.
People are incredibly loyal to someone like that and someone like that knows and has the network and connections to pick the right people to work for him. And he does the vast amount of his work under the radar, which is why he's so successful and is often underestimated--because he's open and honest and friendly with everyone and people tend to take each other at face value. Bill Clinton's a lot like that, as well, but his character flaws kept him from accomplishing as much as he could have.. 9381. Wombat - 9/19/2009 3:26:58 AM The star wars installations in Poland And the Czech Republic were a joke from the beginning. The majority polled in both countries didn't want them, the technology is as yet unreliable, and it needlessly antagonised Russia. Good riddance. 9382. arkymalarky - 9/19/2009 4:13:47 AM One of the main points of my post that I neglected to make was that I'd be surprised if leaks come out of the Obama administration and there's likely a lot more going on wrt to any action they take than it seems on the surface. Wombat's post is key. They're not going to toss something of value for no reason. 9383. alistairconnor - 10/6/2009 1:20:02 PM Obama is involved in a complex crisis with Iran and Russia. It's not getting all that much public attention, but it seems to me that it's his first real foreign policy test. If he resolves it well, then he's a safe pair of hands...
The fuss about the hidden Iranian facility is one thing, but there's a lot more going on. The IAEA has concluded that they have all the science required to make a bomb. And Israeli intelligence has concluded that Russian scientists are helping them.
I had been of the opinion that the Iran/bomb thing was an elaborate double bluff rather like Saddam's : no we're not making a bomb; nudge nudge wink wink yes we are (mostly for domestic consumption), but that actually they weren't (this was the US intelligence assessment until recently).
But what it looks like to me is a concerted joint effort by Obama and the Israelis, based on compelling evidence, to get the Iranians to back down, and the Russians to back off.
They seem to be soft-pedalling it, relatively speaking. Any sanctions against Iran require Russian co-operation to be effective; Russia will not wish to be seen to be bullied, they are interested in harrassing the US as much as possible to preserve their sphere of influence, but they are open to bargaining, and have perhaps been persuaded to dump the Iranians, who aren't really a strategic ally for them.
So the relatively conciliatory tone of the Iranians just recently may well represent a fundamental shift, and the start of the untying of the Gordian knot...
If, on the other hand, the Russians perceive Obama as weak, and unwilling to go to war over the issue, then they may push the Iranians to be intransigent. And that, considering the short fuse of the Israelis, could well lead to war with Iran, which would necessarily involve the US.
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